Both the U.S. and (the People’s Republic of) China are trying to establish the first lunar outposts, and it is possible that we will see lunar colonies within our lifetimes. When that happens, do you think there will be a movement towards independence, just as the colonies of Britain, France, Spain, etc. vyed for freedom? Would this be peaceful or violent, and how would either work? How realistic is an independent lunar nation, given the hostile living conditions? What would lunar culture look like? Would it be a mix of American and Chinese culture, or something new entirely?
Or do you think the Moon and other bodies in our Solar System will become internationally run (and protected) areas, a bit like how Antarctica is on Earth?
Yes, but first they need to develop Gundams.
It would depend on how much they needed external support from other countries.
Extremely unlikely. The moon lacks sufficient resources so any outposts established in our lifetimes will likely remain reliant on the Earth. Building the industrial capacity capable of sustaining a technological civilization on the moon is hard enough already on our planet. I would expect outposts on the moon to be culturally similar to those in Antarctica.
Fully agree. That said, the Antarctic research stations do have their own subculture and their own accent, so that much will likely occur on a lunar base, too.
Really? That’s really cool!
It really is :D ! Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_English
Very doubtful, at least for a long time. Barring some insane discoveries, sustaining any community worthy of calling “independent” on the Moon would take decades of constant trade.
The Moon also offers very little raw material opportunity too, it’s hard to even consider whatever might happen up there to be “colonizing”
Virginia was a colony for over 150 years before declaring independence. A century and a half may be long enough to build out an agricultural base.
The Moon also has some benefits to colonization, including an easier place to launch spaceships beyond Earth.
This is true and I was mostly just being pedantic. What I was trying to say is that 99% of modern colonization as been mercantilism. Even the few exceptions to this aren’t relevant because self-reliance on the Moon is almost nonexistent. There’s very little “dogmatic” justification for it, too.
The moon offers very little cost-effective extractive industry, at least not without some wild discoveries or decades (centuries?) of infrastructure buildout. There is an almost-garaunteed $0 immediate ROI.
Whatever happens there would probably be closer to Antarcitc research outposts than the New World colonial craze. Nonnational scientific stations whose funding ebbs and flows with the geopolitical dickwagging of a handful of terrestial superpowers.
Most of the colonization of the Americas was mercantilist in origin. The initial discovery was started as a way to find a trade route to China and many colonization efforts were more about resource extraction than anything else; it took a century before colonies started popping up focused on religious freedom.
As for the comparison to Antarctica, there was an intentional pause put on colonization as it became apparent that colonization was finally within humanity’s technological grasp and there were possible mineral rights that would make colonization worth it.
Colonization will likely be slow, but I expect that economic uses for the Moon will be found.
Wouldn’t fighting people from the Moon be ridiculously easy for Earth people? Earth is like a Hyperbolic Time Chamber compared to the Moon.
It is a lot easier to fling a rock from the Moon to Earth than to fling a rock from Earth to the Moon.
Heinlein explored how a lunar colony could develop in “The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress”. He thinks it will move towards some kind of anarcho-capitalist society that will fight for independence from earth. His ideas on how a predominantly male society will result in polygamy are somewhat weird but fascinating.
See also The Dispossessed by Ursula LeGuin
Granted it’s Mars not the Moon but the breakaway – and how it affects Earth politics – is a central plotnpoint
The Dispossessed is set on Anarres and Urras, the twin inhabited worlds of Tau Ceti.
Dammit, that’s what I get for going on 25-year old memory of last reading the book. In my defense, one of the main character narrators captains a space ship that goes between Earth and Mars and this provides insight into the two cultures.
Oh and BTW he’s got a wife on both worlds. Spicy
Are you sure you’re not thinking of “Triton”?
Nope, never read anything by Samuel R. Delany
I did read a lot of L Ron Hubbard, for a moment I thought you were referencing his short story collection
On one hand, it’s a really good. On the other, the future it predicted failed.
Let’s start with the author’s ideas about prison. When the book was written, cartels and prison gangs were nowhere near as prevalent as they are today. The idea that there’d be no gangs running the Lunar prisons might have made sense in 1966, but not today.
I also get a chuckle out of the idea that it’s easier for a computer to achieve self-awareness than it is for that same computer to create a realistic video image.
I use the term ‘antique science fiction’ for older books that are fun to read but can’t be taken seriously.
I’m most amused to discover they had two computers total on the moon. Almost as amusing as 1930s sicfi where computers were humans
“The Man Who Sold The Moon” is wrong about pretty much everything, but it’s still a great read.
HG Wells and Jules Verne are never going to go away, because their books are still fun.
The martians in Heinlein’s “Red Planet” and “Stranger in a Strange Land” are really interesting, even tho we now know the planet is nothing like that.
Imagine living under Emperor Musk of the Moon & Mars…
To me honestly the idea of non earth colonies are an amazing potential, IE I feel like most of the good in the initial US founding came from basically being able to start later in the game with knowledge others didn’t have, and thus make a better government than currently existed faster, thanks to not having the centuries of red tape and “tradition” to deal with. Of course after that head start I think they set themselves up in a way that made them progress slower than the rest of the world.
Now it feels like the actual true start needs to be another form of that, and best part of a non earth civilization is, it would be perhaps the first recorded history of expanding into an area, that we aren’t actually just killing off and replacing an existing civilization. So true governance from zero is actually on the table.
I do not see how they could be independant from earth. No athmosphere, extreme temperatures, constantly bathed in radiation. Maybe an antartic style base but nothing more than that.
The cost of supplying food is going to push colony owners to make the colonies self sufficient with food.
We have Arctic and Polynesian parts of the world imported food prices are already insanely expensive. When you Antarctica like research bases, the food cost gets borne by government entities because the cost is even higher due to shipping. Now, add a zero or two to the shipping cost to get food to the Moon.
So, once a Moon base gets to the size of a McMurdo station, someone is likely going to figure it will be cheaper to build the ability to grow food on the Moon rather than ship everything from Earth.
It doesn’t even have to be a complete meal at first. The Moon could start with basic starches like potatoes and rice to supplement dehydrated meat and vegetables. Over time, more crops get added and some protein like shrimp and chicken are able to be grown on the Moon. You might not get a steak, but it could be enough to make some colonies mostly self sufficient.
If you’re asking this question you may very much enjoy Isaac Arthur
Moon colony playlist:
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLIIOUpOge0Lv5kr9vrX8DJjlF1A3QWJ3D&ra=mSkeptical this will ever happen. Climate collapse is speeding up, and therefore a full collapse of humanity (in the nearby future, say 100-200 years) is becoming more realistic. So colonization of other planets or the moon is a race against time, which humanity probably won’t win. I don’t want to sound too pessimistic; this is a realistic view, supported by many international scientific organizations.
Luna - New Moon by Ian MacDonald is a fun read. Luna is controlled by a few great families whose ancestors were among the first colonists. It’s been about a century since industrialization really got going.
https://bookshop.org/p/books/luna-new-moon-ian-mcdonald/234de09fb351d5a7
Only if the colonists manage to produce food and other necessary resources on the Moon. If they don’t, the colonial power can cut off their supplies and crush any such ideas.
Of course they are going to build an engine and start the moon…
At first they will certainly be entirely reliant on their origin countries imports for basic survival and that’s a very easy lever to maintain control.
