I’m sure lore will come out. And probably MAGA is losing some small numbers. But are those margins enough to overcome the purging of voter rolls and other literal election fraud? I hope so.
I don’t expect more to come out. Election after election, Americans don’t go to the polls. You don’t need electoral gambits. You just need good, ol’ old-timey American sloth.
In the past half century the average percent voting at midterms has been 40% VEP or so. It’s been as low as about 35% (2014) and it’s been as high as about 50% (2018), but over all, year after year, it dials in to about 40%. And for presidential elections it’s been about 58% over the same rough time period, again with some variation here and there, but not by enough to make any meaningful difference.
I see no reason to think that this one will be any different. I would very much like to be surprised and see turnouts in the 80+% VEP range, but I won’t. I’ll be very surprised if this one exceeds 60%. Or even 50%.
I’m sure lore will come out. And probably MAGA is losing some small numbers. But are those margins enough to overcome the purging of voter rolls and other literal election fraud? I hope so.
I don’t expect more to come out. Election after election, Americans don’t go to the polls. You don’t need electoral gambits. You just need good, ol’ old-timey American sloth.
In the past half century the average percent voting at midterms has been 40% VEP or so. It’s been as low as about 35% (2014) and it’s been as high as about 50% (2018), but over all, year after year, it dials in to about 40%. And for presidential elections it’s been about 58% over the same rough time period, again with some variation here and there, but not by enough to make any meaningful difference.
I see no reason to think that this one will be any different. I would very much like to be surprised and see turnouts in the 80+% VEP range, but I won’t. I’ll be very surprised if this one exceeds 60%. Or even 50%.
Sloth is too powerful a force.