• WrenFeathers@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    Their odds predicted the past two elections wrong. What part of this is not getting through?

    There wasn’t a five in six chance for the candidates during either of the previous two elections. So I’m ignoring your example.

    They were wrong. Twice. Enough said.

    • TheKingBombOmbKiller@lemm.ee
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      2 months ago

      Here is a direct quote from 538:

      538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

      Source

      In 2016 they gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4 % chance of winning, and in 2020 they gave Joe Biden 89 % chance of winning. They are dealing in odds, not calls.

      And even if it isn’t getting through to you, how were they wrong in 2020?

      • WrenFeathers@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        So based on their record over the past two years, it’s safe to say that whoever they assume to have the best odds of winning- it’s still going to be a whoever wins, wins.

        My point is… they’re not accurate.