“Every previous president would have ended it by now.”

“Biden literally couldn’t do worse.”

  • Sybil@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    3
    arrow-down
    5
    ·
    9 months ago

    duverger’s “law” has no predictive value. it’s a tautology as empty as “supply and demand”.

    • Leate_Wonceslace@lemmy.dbzer0.comOP
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      4
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      edit-2
      9 months ago

      Tautologies are statements that are necessarily true by virtue of their construction. In order to show that something is tautological, you must reduce it to an open statement and be able to show that it’s true independent of the variables. Tautologies include “Not Q or Q” and the equivalent “If Q then Q”. Furthermore, stating that something is a tautology implies that you believe it’s true. The last time I encountered someone claiming that something didn’t have predictive value “because it’s a tautology” was a creationist saying the same of evolution, and I realized they had essentially granted their opponent’s conclusion.

      • Sybil@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        3
        arrow-down
        2
        ·
        9 months ago

        in a show of good faith, i’m about to break from my usual rhetorical style. i hope you find this explanation helpful


        Duverger’s Law is a tautology because, from a critical rationalist perspective, a tautological statement is one that cannot be empirically tested or falsified—it’s true by definition. Duverger’s Law states that a plurality-rule election system tends to favor a two-party system. However, if this law is framed in such a way that any outcome can be rationalized within its parameters, then it becomes unfalsifiable.

        For example, if a country with a plurality-rule system has more than two parties, one might argue that the system still “tends to” favor two parties, and the current state is an exception or transition phase. This kind of reasoning makes the law immune to counterexamples, and thus, it operates more as a tautological statement than an empirical hypothesis. The critical rationalist critique of marginalist economics, which relies on ceteris paribus (all else being equal) conditions, suggests any similarly structured law should be viewed with skepticism. For Duverger’s Law to be more than a tautology, it would need to be stated in a way that allows for clear empirical testing and potential falsification, without the possibility of explaining away any contradictory evidence. This would make it a substantive theory that can contribute to our understanding of political systems rather than a mere tautology.

      • Sybil@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        9 months ago

        a tautology is also an appropriate term for any post hoc explanation of material facts that gives no insight into how the future will happen.

        duverger’s “law” is storytelling, it’s not science.

      • Sybil@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        9 months ago

        The last time I encountered someone claiming that something didn’t have predictive value “because it’s a tautology” was a creationist saying the same of evolution

        i don’t know the exact context you’re referencing, but i do know that trying to pigeonhole me with creationists is underhanded.

      • Sybil@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        9 months ago

        stating that something is a tautology implies that you believe it’s true.

        i believe anyone may claim that the price of a good can be described as the point at which temporal demand met temporal supply, but that doesn’t make it a useful observation. it’s not even disprovable, as there is no way to test it. so there is no reason to believe it’s actually true.

        • Leate_Wonceslace@lemmy.dbzer0.comOP
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          3
          arrow-down
          2
          ·
          9 months ago

          I’m not getting in another argument with you; you’re dishonest and annoying. I replied to educate, because despite your claims otherwise you’re clearly ignorant.

          • Sybil@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            2
            arrow-down
            2
            ·
            9 months ago

            because despite your claims otherwise you’re clearly ignorant.

            saying it doesn’t make it so.

          • Sybil@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            2
            arrow-down
            2
            ·
            9 months ago

            I’m not getting in another argument with you; you’re dishonest and annoying.

            i don’t want to argue with you, either. but i do think anyone reading this should know that you are poisoning the well, here.

    • agamemnonymous@sh.itjust.works
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      4
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      9 months ago

      That’s not what a tautology is, Duverger’s Law is a mathematical derivative of First Past the Post election systems. Yes, under FPTP systems, voting third party is equivocating support for both primary parties. Performative ethics without pragmatics is moral masturbation.

      Splitting your responses is rhetorically ridiculous.

      • Sybil@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        3
        arrow-down
        4
        ·
        9 months ago

        Performative ethics without pragmatics is moral masturbation.

        deontological ethics are preferred by professional philosophers and are the basis of most ethical systems. most people grew up with an understanding that “the ends justify the means” can be used to justify some pretty horrific shit.

      • Sybil@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        9 months ago

        it is a tautology and saying that it’s not doesn’t change that. it has exactly no ability to predict the future outcome of any election.

          • Sybil@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            2
            arrow-down
            3
            ·
            9 months ago

            your characterization of me as childish does not change the truth of anything i’ve said

                • agamemnonymous@sh.itjust.works
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  3
                  arrow-down
                  1
                  ·
                  9 months ago

                  Do you think that argument-by-firehose until you’re blocked by anyone who took time to respond to you is a sustainable rhetorical strategy?

                  • Pan_Ziemniak@midwest.social
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    2
                    arrow-down
                    1
                    ·
                    9 months ago

                    Yes, bc they do this all the time. Its to exhaust u, drag the comment train into the ditches where they may convince at least some young person that you are actually wrong if u ever once misstep or misspeak.

                    Ive em tagged as “russian shill.” Theyre not the only ones, but take careful note of their rhetorical style, the way they twist words and come off sounding confident and “intelligent” if u dont think about what they’re saying for more than 3 seconds.

                    Theres more of em, hence why i say again, take note of the “flavor,” shall we say, of debate here. Its easier to catch the others then; they all sound the same. Often they back each other up.

                  • Sybil@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    2
                    arrow-down
                    3
                    ·
                    edit-2
                    9 months ago

                    you’re characterization of my actions and motive have no bearing on whether anything I’ve said is correct, and they do not support any of your claims. this is just posturing and rhetoric.

          • Sybil@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            2
            arrow-down
            5
            ·
            9 months ago

            your accusation of gish galloping is baseless. each of my replies has been a succinct response to one of your claims. the fact that you are able to pack so many fallacious claims into one comment suggests that there is a gish gallop happening, though.

      • Sybil@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        9 months ago

        under FPTP systems, voting third party is equivocating support for both primary parties.

        no, it’s not.

      • Sybil@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        9 months ago

        Splitting your responses is rhetorically ridiculous.

        if you don’twant to talk to me, please don’t