I fear that nuclear war could be happening soon…
Global tensions seem to be rising, and superpowers are allowed to be more and more reckless. It feels like the third world war is imminent, a nuclear war which would end everything.
I am so scared… I am so paralyzed to do anything now. Am I overreacting? Also, what should I be doing?
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Play fallout
A lot of other people have posted some really good stuff in terms of coping, and I think most of them are completely correct; it’s not something you can control, so it’s out of your hands and not really worth worrying about. That said, knowing that has never helped me stop worrying about something before, so I figured I’d type this up in case it helps. 🙂
Nuclear weapons have been a particular interest of mine for years. I’ve read most of the books out there on them, and I’m very familiar with the strategy involved in how they would be deployed in a conflict. I’ve also been to Trinity Site at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico twice, where the first nuclear weapon was tested, so I’ve seen their impact in person (I also have plans to visit Japan, and also the testing sites in Nevada, but haven’t been able to make those work out yet).
If a nuclear war happens, it won’t be the end of everything. They are big, scary, and should an actual full-scale exchange take place hundreds of millions (perhaps even billions) of people will die. It would be an absolutely cataclysmic event.
But that wouldn’t end everything.
A lot of people talk about how we have enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world, which is hyperbolic. The Earth has seen much worse than a nuclear exchange, and it’ll be fine. Overall life will also be fine; plenty of plants and animals would get wiped out, because it would be a mass extinction event, but a huge amount of life would survive and be just fine.
What people mean is that human life would be destroyed, and yeah, fair enough, we’d definitely have a major regression in civilization. But it wouldn’t kill everyone (probably nowhere even close to everyone), and humanity would continue to exist. The impacts of the dust kicked up by the bombs would probably cause some global cooling temporarily, similarly to a couple huge volcanic eruptions at the same time would, and life would become pretty difficult, but it won’t wipe us out.
If you live in a major city in the United States, Europe, Russia, or China, none of this really matters to you. If a nuclear war happens, you might get 10-15 minutes notice, but probably the first you’ll know about it is when an intensely bright flash happens. If you’re close enough, you won’t even have a chance to understand what it is. If you’re a bit further away, you might survive the initial flash of radiation, but be killed by the blast wave, or by burns caused either by the intense amount of heat released or by the radiation itself. The exact radius for this is going to vary based on exactly what type of warheads are detonated in your area, but we’ll say if you’re within a couple miles you’ll likely be killed within a few days because of that.
If you’re outside that second zone, you’re going to probably be okay, at least for a while. You might have some burns you can recover from, your lifetime risk of cancer might be a lot higher depending on where you were, and you may have other injuries related to the bombing, but you’ll probably survive long enough to help with recovery. Congrats!
You asked what you can do to prepare. Well, honestly, not a lot. I’d recommend preparing the same way you should for basically any other large-scale disaster. Ignoring radiation (I’ll get to it in a minute), a nuclear bomb’s aftermath is going to be similar to an earthquake or large fire. Keep a few days or a week of bottled water on hand for each person in your household (and maybe a way to purify water longer-term), have food supplies, some basic medical gear, and emergency lighting/communications equipment. If you’re really concerned about nuclear war specifically, add in some iodine tablets for each member of the household. If you do this, you’ll be prepped not just for nuclear war, but also any of the other much more likely disasters that may occur in your lifetime.
Now, as for the radiation question. Most nuclear weapons are not made to spread large amounts of radiation around. They absolutely will release radiation, but it makes the reaction less efficient, reduces yield, and massively increases cost per bomb. I’m not saying here that it’s not something to worry about or be aware of, but it’s a smaller problem than Hollywood and mass media would have you believe it is. Avoid eating or drinking things that are from directly downwind of an explosion, and try to not let any ash or particles stay on you/breath them in, and you’ve done what you can. Most of radiation exposure management comes down to keeping particles out of your body, particularly the lungs. The longer you’re exposed to radiation, the more likely it is that it’ll do something bad to you. The best remedy is to keep it out of your body as much as you can, and put distance between it and you so the inverse-square law can help.
I hope this helps a bit. Overall, even with global tensions rising, I think the chance of nuclear war is very very low. We’ve been very very close to at least a limited exchange before, and pulled through, and despite everything going on I think the chances of an actual nuclear exchange remains incredibly slim. If you want to prepare, pretend it’s like another large-scale (and much likelier) disaster, and prep for that.
I’ve skipped over some things that weren’t really pertinent, like actual nuclear war theory, and simplified other things, so if you want me to expand on any of this let me know! Nuclear history has been one of my special interests for years and years, and I enjoy talking about it.
I’ll also add about the radiation thing - the vast majority of the radiation from a nuclear explosion will be gone in just a few days. Even if you’re close enough to be affected, staying indoors (turn off air conditioning/heating though) and on the lowest floor possible of the building you’re in will protect you from most of the actual radiation. Again, the big issue is breathing it so sealing windows if you’re able could also help.
Media definitely overestimates the area of effect and timeline of destruction. Make sure you get a crank radio (they usually also double as flashlights and can charge your phone) and info will flow about response, even if it flows slowly and clunky at first. The good news is this applies to other disasters that are far far more likely to affect you, like severe winter weather, hurricanes, or wildfires.
Read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability–instability_paradox
More countries having nukes makes nuclear war less likely
If it really is paralyzing you and affecting your day-to-day decisions, you should see a therapist to help you put things in context and develop good coping mechanisms.
Touch some grass, go to therapy and stop watching the news.
You don’t, you have no direct control over world events.
You have a choice, you can either join an activist group and maybe get some comfort that you’re doing something or take a break and focus on getting the most out of life.
Most countries have some kind of “disaster preparedness” suggestions, be they for earthquakes, floods, tornados, WMDs, etc. A lot of these suggestions overlap: have a stock of food, know where important documents are, think about where you’d shelter, etc.
There will probably not be an extinction-level event. But at some point in your life you may experience an emergency where you need a stock of food, to know where your documents are, to have a place to shelter, etc. So maybe it’d help you out to make plans for what you’d do in case of a general emergency/disaster.
Here are a couple useful documents that were made in the US:
Step 0:
Take 3, intentional, deep breaths.
Inhale for 5 seconds, hold for 5 seconds, slowly exhale for seconds.
Do three of em.
Step 1:
Accept that one day, maybe soon, maybe in the fairly distant future:
You Will Die.
No avoiding it. None of us make it out of here alive.
… really try to actually come to grips with that.
There’s no reward or punishment at the end, its not a judged competition… it just stops, everything goes away, and you go away.
Game over.
Its not fair or unfair. It just is.
Step 2:
Understand that while you are amongst the realm of the living, some things are within your control and others are not, and precisely which things land in which of those categories could change a good deal depending on who exactly you are, what you do or don’t have access to, where exactly you are, etc.
Maybe it makes sense for you to try and build up a bit of an emergency food and water supply, a method of generating power, staying warm or cool, etc, in case shit hits the fan.
Maybe it makes more sense to establish some kind of bug out plan and procedure.
Maybe, it just makes the most sense to just accept that if you’re in a very important / very dense area…well, one day, you might just evaporate.
Unfortunately, withot knowing more about you and your situation, I can’t really say which three of those is the framework of a better approach, or if something entirely different would make more sense.
But for any of those… don’t kick yourself for … things you didn’t do or prepare fon the past, don’t expect to be able to suddenly just ‘solve’ this ‘problem.’
Beyond being terrible for your mental health and just aggrevating the panic spiral, trying to do those things is ineffective, not productive at even attempting to ‘solve’ the ‘problem’.
Break it down into bite sized chunks that are manageable, that each, on their own, put you in a generally better position than not doing them.
Don’t dive headfirst with crazy expensive shit, start with the basics, as if you were preparing for a 3 day emergency from like a tornado or flood or local/regional grid failure or earthquake or hurricane.
Yeah, nukes and war don’t play by all the same rules as those, but a lot of the basics are the same.
Basic food and water supply, basic medkit, flashlight, hand crankable emergency radio, thermal/moon blanket, solid set of clothes, two sets of undies and socks, decent backpack, decent multipurpose knife, probably some all purpose gloves, solid shoes, solid, all purpose coat that you can either open up and air out, or stuff more layers underneath to stay warm… some means of starting a fire…
… these days probably a battery bank/solar charger for a phone… if you’re a lady or gonna be with one or some: tampons…
… make sure you’ve got important ids and documents somewhere secure and ready to go, if you need to go…
… definitely doesn’t hurt to have a couple hundred in cash, smallest bills as you can, just in case some electronic payment system goes down and you need to pay for something.
Pretty much most of that shit can fit into a normal backpack, and if you can put that together, you’re doing way better than being totally and completely unprepared.
Think about it this way, if nuclear does happen then you ain’t gonna have much time to worry about it.
Acceptance of mortality. Acceptance that it could happen at any time. And knowing that there are many, many potential causes that are entirely out of one’s control.
I don’t run around in fear about brain aneurysms.
I think @[email protected] gave you a great breakdown, and I’ll add a little more.
I’ve worked with military technologies before. Unfortunately, I can’t give away many details for relatively obvious reasons. However, I can tell you with absolute confidence that in the case of a ICBM with a nuclear warhead being launched, there is a close to 0 chance it will ever land on Earth. In fact, ICBMs are almost entirely useless technology nowadays.
A nuclear warhead may also be delivered via plane, a la WWII. This too, is largely a nonissue. The odds of a plane getting deep enough into a country while carrying a weapon like that while under the level of surveillance that is currently going on are again, close to 0.
There’s a reason nobody has dropped any Nukes yet. It’s not because anyone is afraid of the consequences. It’s because it’s so close to impossible for it be an actual threat.
With all due respect regarding your desire for discretion, you’re going to at least have to make an argument here, rather than an unfounded claim. Why will an attack with ICBMs be unsuccessful?
Yeah, Israel was able to launch a shit ton of Missiles into Iran, and some of the Iranian Missiles hit Israel, even through the Iron dome, the tightest missile defense system in the world.
- The tightest missile defense system in the world in public knowledge
- The actual system that is used for ICBMs wasn’t activated because these were considered “friendly” missiles by that system.
ETA: 3. Those missiles didn’t have nuclear warheads on them, so the good system wouldn’t have really cared even if they weren’t friendly
(X) Doubt.
Sure, missiles coming in from Iran were probably considered “friendly” by Israel…👍
Yes, the good system will magically discern which of the missiles are nuclear tipped when the time comes.
Also, it won’t be missiles raining down once the shit hits the fan. It will be MIRVs. Good luck catching all of those with the secret, ultra capable ABM system that has been deployed to all likely target locations! If you’re willing to spend the money, a combination of THAAD, Patriot, and perhaps an Arleigh Burke or two parked off the coast might be able to catch a good number of warheads headed for e.g. NYC or DC but you cannot possibly cover every place in the country all at once.
The chance of that happening is insanely low. Superpowers have been threatening it since the 80’s and no one has any intention to do shit about it.
Also, everyone knows it’s a lose-lose situation- but no one will admit it. They all want everyone to believe they’ll be the only victors…
Did you forget about that dementia ridden, sociopathic, egomaniacal moron in the whitehouse? Man would fire a nuke by accident, let alone if someone had the audacity to criticize him in any way.
We lived through the Cold War in the '80s. It seemed like a very real threat and eventually even though nothing really changed until the wall came down, everyone kind of got used to it and went on as best we could.
Like we have more recently with Covid. That’s still there and hasn’t gone away. It’s still as serious a threat as it was at the beginning. You know how you’d mostly forgotten about it but not really? Same deal.
If you can’t form or find a community, find distractions.
And if you find out where the first bomb’s going to hit, let me know because I want to be under it.
Look on the bright side
